In 2014, Jeffrey Gundlach’s market forecast proved reasonably accurate. What developments does he foresee for the markets in 2015? Robert Huebscher summarizes his recent comments. One thing to beware of is unreasonable market expectations. Research Affiliates advises investors to use the structural “building blocks” approach to better anticipate real returns. Given that economists have failed to predict most major financial crises, investors may wonder if we should listen to them at all. Nobel laureate Robert Shiller answers this question and explains why it pays to consider their views.

Gundlach’s Forecast For 2015– Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Doubleline, gave his 2015 forecast conference call last week.  This article by Robert Huebscher summarizes Gundlach’s forecast for interest rates, inflation, oil prices, gold, and market volatility.  Gundlach’s 2014 forecast, made a year ago, proved reasonably accurate. Read more…

Research Affiliates 10 Year Expected Returns–  In a world of low bond yields and slow economic growth, historically realized 5-6% real (7-8% nominal) asset class returns may be unrealistic expectations. Using a structural “building blocks” approach, Research Affiliates forecasts 10 year real returns. Read more…

What Good Are Economists?–  Robert J. Shiller, president-elect of the American Economic Association, recently posed this question.  He pointed out that economists have not had a good record for forecasting most of the major crises in the last century. Read more…

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John R. Day, Bill Ennis, Stephanie Davidson and Matt Heller

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